French Politics Set to Become “Even Messier” as Far-Right Leader Le Pen Fights Election Ban
Paris has descended into fresh political chaos after Marine Le Pen saw her presidential aspirations crushed by a court-imposed ban from holding public office — a move experts say could further weaken France’s economy.
On Monday, France was rocked by yet another political shock when Le Pen, parliamentary party leader of the National Rally party (Rassemblement National), was found guilty of misusing EU funds and immediately prohibited from running for office for five years. This decision effectively sidelines her from the 2027 presidential race.
Le Pen strongly rejects the accusations and, on Monday evening, pledged to challenge the ruling, which she labeled a “biased” and “political decision.”
“I am combative, I won’t allow myself to be eliminated like this. I will use all the possible routes to appeal. There is a narrow path. It is indeed very narrow, but it exists. I will indeed ask as clearly as possible for the appeal decision to be allowed so I can be considered to run for the presidential election,” Le Pen told French broadcaster TF1.
Benedicte de Perthuis, the Paris Criminal Court judge overseeing the case, dismissed claims of political motivation on Monday, asserting that no one enjoys “immunity in violation of the rule of law.”
The verdict has heightened tensions within France’s political circles, with fears of a backlash from Le Pen’s base and concerns that the ruling might be perceived as a targeted prosecution.
Surprisingly, even some of Le Pen’s rivals, including leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon and centrist Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, expressed unease about the judiciary’s authority to impose an immediate ban, especially before the appeals process is exhausted.
Fabrice Leggeri, National Rally spokesperson, appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Tuesday, calling the decision a “threat to French democracy” and criticizing the French justice system for its lack of “neutrality.”
Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, president of National Rally and a potential fallback candidate should Le Pen’s appeal fail, urged supporters to sign a petition backing Le Pen and join a “peaceful mobilization” in her defense.
French Politics ‘Grow Even Messier’
Experts warn that this ruling could deepen instability in French politics, already strained by months of disputes over leadership, government spending, and tax policies.
The court’s decision might push National Rally – the largest parliamentary opposition party in the National Assembly – into greater unpredictability, increasing the odds of toppling the fragile administration of centrist PM Bayrou, who only narrowly passed a 2025 budget to address France’s deficit, which reached 5.8% of GDP last year.
“In the near term, this verdict will make it even more difficult to govern France,” Salomon Fiedler, an economist at Berenberg Bank, wrote Monday in an analysis titled “French Politics Turn Even Messier.”
“With parliament split into three nearly equal blocs, the right and left can unite to bring down the centrist minority government whenever they choose. Perceiving the ruling as unjust, National Rally is now less inclined to work with the government and more likely to back a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister François Bayrou,” Fiedler explained.
Regarding Le Pen’s political prospects, analysts caution against ruling her out entirely, suggesting National Rally could cast her as a martyr and leverage anti-elite sentiment.
Fiedler observed that the party “may be able to play the verdict to their favor by claiming political persecution and riding on anti-establishment sentiment.”
Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, echoed this on Monday, stating, “this was not a ‘political’ trial but Le Pen will now seek to make it into one. She may succeed.”
Rahman emphasized that Monday’s ruling doesn’t seal Le Pen’s fate, predicting she’ll likely file an urgent appeal with one of France’s three top judicial bodies.
She’s expected to ask the Constitutional Council to rule on a “priority question” about the legitimacy of her immediate five-year ban, imposed before her appeals are resolved.
“She is expected to argue before the Constitutional Council that she is too important a politician to ban. It would be an affront to French democracy, her lawyers will say, if voters are barred from casting ballots for a front-runner in the presidential election in 2027,” Rahman remarked.
Rahman believes there’s a “strong chance” the ban could be paused if the Constitutional Council prioritizes voter rights over strict legal enforcement, though the process won’t be quick.
“These appeals are likely to last at least two years and allow her to run for President in April-May 2027,” he concluded.
TGSN is your premier international newswire with unparalleled access to global news sources. TGSN delivers comprehensive coverage for a truly connected world. At TGSN we welcome freelance reporters, researchers and citizen journalists. For more information, read this page.
TGSN is reader-funded, support TGSN. See details:
SOL Address:
Ag7gcWyz53asFxnMrKg8LrZ4ZD2XzfNiUGnnBduJqJuz
ETH Address:
0xBf5182628c90FDAeAcbac3510172523d05b2C4Ff
BTC Address:
bc1qlldkq539v5ysye365av2md8wrxhshcr7kuql5w
