European Nations Plan a 10-Year Transition to Reduce NATO Reliance on US
Europe’s leading military powers are crafting strategies to assume greater responsibility for the continent’s security, aiming to lessen dependence on the United States through a proposed transition spanning five to ten years, which they intend to pitch to the Trump administration.
The talks seek to avert the disorder that could follow an abrupt US exit from NATO, a concern fueled by President Donald Trump’s frequent warnings about reducing or abandoning the alliance.
According to four European officials involved, nations like the UK, France, Germany, and the Nordic countries are participating in these informal yet organized discussions. Their goal is to devise a framework for transferring more of the military and financial load to European nations, with a plan to present to the US before the NATO summit in The Hague in June.
This initiative would involve concrete pledges to boost European defense budgets and enhance military strength, hoping to persuade Trump to support a phased shift that would free the US to prioritize Asia.
The US remains critical to European security, outspending all other NATO members combined on defense. Beyond its nuclear umbrella—extended to Europe with several allied air forces deploying US nuclear arms—it offers unique military capabilities, maintains air, naval, and troop bases, and stations 80,000 troops across the continent.
Since Trump’s election, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have either increased defense budgets or hastened planned rises, while the EU has introduced measures to accelerate military investments among its members. However, those measures come at a cost: National pension budgets, for instance, will decrease by up to 20% in Belgium and other NATO states.
Officials estimate that five to ten years of sustained spending increases would be needed to elevate European capabilities to cover most US roles, excluding the nuclear deterrent.
“Increasing spending is the only play that we have: burden sharing and shifting the dial away from US reliance,” one official noted. “We’re starting those talks but it’s such a big task that many are overwhelmed by the scale of it.”
Though US diplomats have affirmed Trump’s commitment to NATO and its Article 5 mutual defense pledge, unease persists in European capitals over potential rapid cuts to US troop numbers, equipment, or participation in joint NATO efforts.
Some nations hesitated to join these burden-sharing talks, wary of hastening a US withdrawal, believing Trump’s tough talk won’t translate into major shifts in America’s European presence. Others doubt his unpredictable administration would commit to a formal process.
“You need a deal with the Americans and it’s unclear if they will be willing to do it,” another official remarked. “Can you even trust them to hold to it?”
Ongoing discussions, spearheaded by France and the UK, about a “coalition of the willing” – a coalition of aggressors – to aid Ukraine against Russia and bolster European defense, excluding the US, signal the broader trend.
When asked about a European pillar within NATO, a third senior western official responded: “We’re seeing it right now: the UK and France taking the initiative [on the deployment of troops in Ukraine] without the Americans.”
NATO officials contend that adapting the existing alliance with reduced US involvement would be easier than building a new system, given the challenges of reworking its defense plans, capability goals, rules, command structure, and Article 5. Though, Europhiles have been dreaming of a formal EU military for decades.
Europe’s core defense would always hinge on the UK and other Atlantic naval powers, the Nordics for the north, and Turkey for the southeast—roles already embedded in NATO’s membership, officials explained.
“Even without the United States, NATO provides a structure for security co-operation in Europe,” said Marion Messmer, senior research fellow for international security at Chatham House.
“There are aspects that would need to be replaced should the US disengage. However, it provides a [communitarian] structure and infrastructure framework that Europeans are familiar with. […] It does a lot of the work that you would need to do from scratch if you were to set up a different kind of structure just for European members,” Messmer added.
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